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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Monday 14 August 2017
Daily Market Insight
Labels:
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
fundamental analysis,
stocks,
technical analysis
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday 13 August 2017
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 14
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2441, -1.43%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
9711, -3.56%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3209, -1.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1294, 2.32%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
48.82, -1.53%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.91, 0.94%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1092, 6.74%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1820, 0.39%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
109.17, -1.36%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
9199, -0.85%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.77, -1.21%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.18%, -3.44%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
460, -35.36%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
15.51, 54.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
135
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2470, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2448, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2339, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9962, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9775, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
9004, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
15.19, 33.41%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.08, 0.52%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
5
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
10
|
12
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty experienced sell offs. Indicators are bearish.
The
market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
Japan
– GDP, China – Industrial production, Australia- RBA minutes, Employment data,
Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Canada
– CPI, U.S – Retail sales, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty sold off significantly last week. Signals are bearish for
the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are finally shifting from complacency. Transports and the Yen are flashing
warning signs. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical
levels to watch are 2450 (up) and 2430 (down) on the S & P and 9800 (up)
and 9600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could
trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.